Um retrocesso de três décadas

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Um retrocesso de três décadas

Prefeitos do interior de São Paulo intensificam a abordagem a investidores que pretendiam se instalar em outros Estados e agora, na expectativa de que desapareçam as políticas estaduais de atração de investimentos, estão decididos a permanecer ou mudar-se para a província mais rica do País. A notícia da Folha de S. Paulo (19/1015) não surpreende; aliás, confirma os alertas dados por todos que se preocupam com as desigualdades regionais.

Instalar-se no maior mercado nacional, com melhor infraestrutura é uma escolha óbvia, a não ser que exista uma política pública direcionada para a redução do custo do investimento ou de correção das assimetrias. É exatamente esta política, de incentivo fiscal e pejorativamente chamada de guerra fiscal, que os Estados menos desenvolvidos têm aplicado, com sucesso, nas últimas três décadas.

O modelo, baseado no ICMS vem sendo bombardeado desde que nasceu, no início dos anos 80, sob a alegação de que geram outras distorções. Atire a primeira pedra quem conseguir apontar alguma política pública no mundo inteiramente imune a algum tipo de problema.

É claro que distorções precisam ser corrigidas, mas para além desse debate é preciso medir o grau de acerto obtido até aqui. Tomando-se por referência Goiás, pioneiro na iniciativa, todos os indicadores são enfáticos quanto aos efeitos benéficos. Para tanto, basta lembrar que, nas últimas três décadas, a economia local cresceu a um ritmo 65% superior à nacional, assim como a arrecadação.

Mas a se confirmarem os primeiros movimentos dos paulistas estamos prestes a assistir a um retrocesso de três décadas, com a industrialização voltando a se concentrar de maneira acentuada no Sudeste do País. Concentração esta que foi altamente beneficiada por estímulos públicos de toda ordem, distribuídos generosamente, sobretudo na primeira metade do século passado.

Pode ser que os incentivos regionais não sejam a única resposta eficiente para todas as distorções nacionais, mas é inegável que o Brasil não está preparado para voltar a assistir à radicalização de suas assimetrias com a volta da concentração econômica nos Estados já maduros em desenvolvimento industrial. Nem mesmo a estes Estados interessa nova onda de migração.

É urgente que se estabeleça alternativa a esse cenário. O Projeto de Lei do Senado (PLS 130) e as propostas da União trazem alguns avanços, como a regularização de benefícios já concedidos, mas o conjunto é muito tímido quanto ao futuro. Acena com a criação de fundos de compensação, de alcance limitado, bancados por receitas incertas.

Precisamos de uma política mais incisiva, que seja muito clara quanto à disposição do poder público de, prioritariamente, desonerar e subvencionar os novos negócios na fase pré-operacional; em seguida continuar desonerando a produção e a distribuição na fase operacional; sem prejuízo da autonomia aos Estados quanto aos incentivos que não envolvam operações interestaduais.

A qualidade dessa nova política vai depender muito da capacidade de mobilização dos Estados perdedores com a reforma, ou seja, a grande maioria, mas podemos adiantar que será, inevitavelmente, mais burocrática e sujeita a maiores distorções. Nenhum Estado vai poder reclamar dos créditos concedidos pelo vizinho, em compensação desaparecerá aquela forma tão simples quanto eficiente de conceder ao empreendedor um valor proporcional ao imposto por ele mesmo gerado.

Na iminência de perder quase toda a sua autonomia na gestão do ICMS, os Estados precisam se movimentar para fazer valer outros direitos solapados. É o caso dos chamados ressarcimentos da Lei Kandir, um recurso que a União lhes deve há quase 20 anos em troca das exportações desoneradas de várias commodities, como a soja. A medida exata dos valores ainda é fonte de muita polêmica, mas há consenso de que a União, até hoje, não paga a metade do que deveria.

O pior de tudo é que esse debate coincide com o agravamento da crise política e econômica, ao mesmo tempo em que há uma proposta de súmula vinculante no STF, pronta para fulminar os incentivos estaduais. Os ministros do tribunal ainda não o fizeram, por apostar numa solução legislativa, a partir de um novo pacto federativo. Precisamos de lideranças políticas e empresariais à altura do desafio.

Sidnei C. Pimentel, formado em Comunicação pela UFG, é advogado tributarista com MBA em Finanças e controladoria pela FGV.

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