As seduções do Ministro Guido Mantega quanto à Guerra Fiscal

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As seduções do Ministro Guido Mantega quanto à Guerra Fiscal
05/12/2012
Por : Sidnei Pimentel
Não é de hoje que o Governo Central  tenta colocar um fim à única política efetiva de desenvolvimento regional que temos no Brasil, os incentivos estaduais baseados no ICMS, mas sempre esbarrou na desconfiança dos principais interessados,  empresários e  estados incentivadores. Agora está de volta com o discurso de que “a guerra fiscal se exauriu”, nas palavras do Ministro da Fazenda, Guido Mantega, à  comissão de Assuntos Econômicos do Senado.
Fomos conferir de perto esta audiência e vimos que para  seduzir os interlocutores, o Ministro, desta vez apareceu com um saco de bondades que merece muito cuidado na sua análise. A primeira delas é atender a uma velha demanda dos estados: trocar o indexador das dívidas estaduais, hoje atreladas a índices que não guardam mais sintonia coma realidade. Tudo passaria a ser vinculado à selic, trazendo um bom alívio nas contas provinciais para o futuro.
A segunda parte do pacote de bondades seria a convalidação do passado, assegurando a sonhada segurança jurídica e a criação de dois fundos de investimentos bem parrudos para substituir a atual política. O primeiro teria origem orçamentária e seria repassado aos estados para recompor as perdas decorrentes das mudanças no regime interestadual do ICMS. O Segundo teria origem financeira e se destinaria a substituir a política de incentivos hoje vigente. Em troca, os Estados aceitariam a unificação da alíquota interestadual de ICMS em 4%, a exemplo do que acaba de ser instituído para as mercadorias importadas. O período de transição se daria em até oito anos, com as alíquotas interestaduais caindo um ponto percentual a cada ano.
Como hoje temos alíquotas de 7% e, na maioria, de 12%, as primeiras alcançariam a meta já no terceiro ano de transição e as segundas nos  referidos oito anos. Por outro lado  pelos próximos 16 anos contaríamos com a assistência dos tais fundos, que cobririam o período de transição e ainda mais oito anos.
Pelo discurso do Ministro, é o mundo perfeito: dívidas melhor resolvidas, estados com seguro-receita,  incentivos assegurados e segurança jurídica. O problema  está, como sempre, nos detalhes dos quais Guido Mantega passou ao largo, na sua conversa com os Senadores, preferindo deixar isso para quando os Secretários Estaduais de Fazenda forem à Comissão de Assuntos Econômicos, em data a ser definida.
O principal ponto crítico: quem garante que esses fundos vão funcionar? Basta lembrar que a Lei Kandir, está perto de completar duas décadas e os ressarcimentos  aos Estados, nela previstos até hoje são pouco mais que uma miragem.
Outra dúvida, ainda que os fundos saiam do papel, o volume de recursos será suficiente para substituir com eficiência a bem sucedida políticas de desenvolvimento regional? As condições em que os recursos (se realmente saírem do papel) serão suficientes para realmente atrair um empreendedor para os chamados estados emergentes?
Ou seja, a proposta  que o ministro Mantega tenta vender com uma  conversa  macia e elegância nos modos,  está repleta de incertezas. Na prática está propondo trocar uma política que comprovadamente funciona (quem tem dúvidas basta olhar os indicadores econômicos de Goiás que crescem  acima da média nacional)  por algo que ainda não sabemos  ao certo como vai funcionar.
O que sabemos é que isso  é resultante de uma pressão já histórica dos estados mais desenvolvidos. É hora de vigilância máxima.
 
Sidnei Pimentel
OAB-GO 18.649

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